Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
